“Though we are delighted with what we own, we are not pleased with our prospects for committing incoming funds. Prices are high for both businesses and stocks. That does not mean that the prices of either will fall — we have absolutely no view on that matter — but it does mean that we get relatively little in prospective earnings when we commit fresh money.
Under these circumstances, we try to exert a Ted Williams kind of discipline. In his book The Science of Hitting, Ted explains that he carved the strike zone into 77 cells, each the size of a baseball. Swinging only at balls in his “best” cell, he knew, would allow him to bat .400; reaching for balls in his “worst” spot, the low outside corner of the strike zone, would reduce him to .230. In other words, waiting for the fat pitch would mean a trip to the Hall of Fame; swinging indiscriminately would mean a ticket to the minors.
If they are in the strike zone at all, the business “pitches” we now see are just catching the lower outside corner. If we swing, we will be locked into low returns. But if we let all of today’s balls go by, there can be no assurance that the next ones we see will be more to our liking. Perhaps the attractive prices of the past were the aberrations, not the full prices of today. Unlike Ted, we can’t be called out if we resist three pitches that are barely in the strike zone; nevertheless, just standing there, day after day, with my bat on my shoulder is not my idea of fun.”
– Warren Buffet, Berkshire Hathaway 1997 Shareholder Letter
Every idea in every one of Warren Buffet’s shareholder letters is worth hanging on to and ruminating over. For me personally, it’s the idea of waiting for a fat pitch that is one of the most appealing. For most of 2018 and 2019, I would spend some time almost every day looking for businesses to invest in – great businesses that could be bought for cheap or even fair value. Sometimes, there were fantastic businesses that seemed too expensive. Sometimes, there were cheap stocks but the long-term viability of the business was in question. Mostly, neither condition was met. Looking back, it’s this idea of waiting for the fat pitch that allowed me keep at it – to quote Warren – just stand there, day after day, with my bat on my shoulder.
Hi! I am Chetan Bharadwaj, founder of Fat Pitch Investor. For many years, value investing has been a hobby and passion of mine. With this website, I intend to explore what it means to be a Fat Pitch Investor, i.e., wait for the fat pitch. Along the way, I hope to create a community of like minded folks, just like you. I hope to both teach what I learn and learn from you.